[SMM Analysis: Rising alumina prices drive up aluminum cost; south-west China implements electricity prices for rainy season] SMM reported on July 1: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in June 2025 was 16,545 yuan/mt, up 1.3% MoM and down 6.4% YoY. Despite alumina prices jumping initially and then pulling back during the period, they remained above 3,100 yuan/mt, leading to a MoM increase in the monthly average price and driving up the aluminum cost. SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM alumina index during the period (5.26-6.25) was 3,235.7 yuan/mt, up 9.3% MoM. The average spot price of SMM A00 aluminum in June 2025 was approximately 20,453 yuan/mt (May 26-June 25), with the average profit of the domestic aluminum industry at around 3,908 yuan/mt. As of month-end June 2025, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum reached 43.82 million mt, with the industry's highest full cost rising to 19,416 yuan/mt. If the industry uses the monthly average price for calculation, 100% of the domestic aluminum operating capacity was profitable in June.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: The Weak Supply and Demand Pattern Persists, SHFE Tin Maintains Fluctuating Trend Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls Guidance] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Opened at 267,800 yuan/mt, maintained a fluctuating trend during the day, and surged sharply in the closing session to close at 269,840 yuan/mt (up 0.63% from the previous day), with an intraday range of 266,160-269,840 yuan/mt. Trading volume: 70,070 lots (down 35.6% from the previous day), open interest: 31,494 lots (a slight increase of 10 lots).

Demand side, most downstream SiMn alloy plants are in an active inquiry period. Manganese ore at Tianjin Port and Qinzhou Port is experiencing slow destocking compared to last week (WoW), so miners' offers are relatively firm. Additionally...

[Fundamentals: Strong supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc falls significantly]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2508 contract opened at 22,360 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc reached a high of 22,360 yuan/mt, then declined continuously, hitting a low of 22,105 yuan/mt during the session. Subsequently, SHFE zinc rebounded slightly to near the daily average line, closing down at 22,255 yuan/mt, a drop of 110 yuan/mt...

According to SMM's tracking survey data, there were actually 6 new blast furnaces undergoing maintenance in June, resulting in a daily reduction of 28,800 mt of pig iron production. Meanwhile, 7 blast furnaces resumed production, leading to a daily increase of 35,300 mt in pig iron production. SMM survey data showed that blast furnace maintenance in June resulted in a net reduction of 4.7391 million mt in pig iron production, increasing slightly by 346,300 mt MoM from May. The daily average pig iron production at month-end in June decreased slightly by 2,100 mt compared to May. As of now, there are plans for 9 new blast furnaces to undergo maintenance in July, which will lead to a daily reduction of 44,700 mt in pig iron production. In contrast, there are plans for 4 blast furnaces to resume production, which will increase daily pig iron production by 22,000 mt. Based on existing data statistics, pig iron production in July is expected to pull back. According to SMM's daily average pig iron production estimate, the daily average pig iron production at month-end in July is expected to be around 2.41 million mt, showing a slight MoM decrease.

[SMM Analysis: Iron Phosphate Market Showed Slight Growth Amid Stability in June, with Prices Failing to Find Support amid Rush for Orders] SMM reported on July 1: In June, the domestic iron phosphate market showed a steady growth trend, with production increasing slightly by 2% MoM and significantly by 56% YoY...